One militia disobeyed orders and crossed the city limits, while others executed civilians fleeing to Fallujah’s north. Fearing a similar scenario in Fallujah, the Iraqi government forbade the Shia militias from entering the city center and restricted them to the northern suburbs. The lack of coordination and organization in Tikrit resulted in a halting campaign marred by accusations of war crimes. The Americans in turn rejected working with the militias. The largest militias, which oppose Western intervention in Iraq, refused to continue operations if American warplanes took part in the battle.
Reports suggested that operations around Tikrit were under the leadership of Shia militias controlled by independent businessmen and Iranian-aligned warlords, not the Iraqi military. However, the operation suffered from serious logistical and organizational difficulties.
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In a month-long campaign last year, American airstrikes and Shia militias helped the ISF, which far outnumbered ISIS, free Tikrit and secure Baghdad from the north. The Second Battle of Tikrit, like the Third Battle of Fallujah, can help predict what might happen during the offensive for Mosul. ISIS has even taken advantage of the ISF’s poor management to infiltrate Baghdad again. If the Iraqi government is still struggling to repair its official military, analysts should question its ability to exercise command and control over reckless militias with sectarian foundations. The Shia militias, meanwhile, have pledged allegiance to the Iraqi government despite maintaining worrying links to Iran.įollowing the Iraq War, the ISF suffered from systemic corruption and weakness. The Kurdish security forces report to an autonomous, parallel government in Erbil, which has often threatened to secede from Iraq. However much the militias have improved the Iraqi government’s ability to fight ISIS, their loyalty remains in question. The international coalition bombing ISIS believes that the terrorist organization, on the other hand, has fewer than 10,000 fighters in Mosul. According to some estimates, the Kurdish militias offer an additional 240,000 fighters, while the Shia militias offer up to 120,000. Kurdish and Shia militias have provided the manpower that the ISF lacked before the rise of ISIS. The Iraqi government realized that it might need the help of the country’s various militias to bolster the regular army and mobilized as many of these fighters as possible to defend Baghdad and Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. In June 2014, ISIS destroyed several divisions of the Iraqi army, overran much of four governorates, and threatened Baghdad from three sides. Unruly militias help the Iraqi government outgun ISIS Based on past experience, their dependence on antagonistic countries and militias to defeat a shrewd enemy could bring any offensive to a months-long halt. Though the ISF have the numbers and weapons to free Mosul, they lack the coordination and organization. Many observers are pessimistic, given Iraq’s history.įor now, the international community should be worrying less about the future and more about the present. The obvious concerns include whether the Iraqi government can prevent another terrorist organization from taking advantage of Sunni grievances and reconnect the country’s sectarian fabric. With ISIS’s impending doom in Iraq taken for granted, analysts have started focusing on the potential aftermath of the battle for Mosul. The ISF are receiving air support from an international coalition and fire support from dozens of Kurdish and Shia militias, which will likely join the offensive. ISIS-held territory in Iraq has shrunk from more than 40 percent of the country to less than 10 percent.
The Iraqi government hopes to expel ISIS from Mosul by the end of the year. Others are burning oil wells and planting improvised explosive devices to stymie enemy advances. Hundreds of the militants are fleeing from Iraq to Syria in anticipation of an imminent offensive to retake the city. After the Iraqi security forces (ISF) recaptured Fallujah from ISIS this June, they set their sights on Mosul, the terrorist organization’s biggest prize and Iraq’s second-largest city.
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